Episode 47 at Kīlauea came and went on 14–15 May — precursory overflows from the south vent began in the small hours of Thursday morning, fountaining began at 3:27 PM HST on Wednesday, and it has just ended. The inter-episode interval from Episode 46 was around nine days — fitting the pattern HVO flagged this week of episodes becoming nearly weekly as erupted volumes per episode decrease. Meanwhile Mayon has given up a meaningful datapoint: the Mi-isi lava flow has advanced to 1.6 km, its first extension in several weeks.
HVO published a Volcano Watch article this week noting that the frequency of Kīlauea's fountaining episodes has increased to nearly one per week — reminiscent of the early days of the eruption in late 2024. The reason: each episode is erupting a smaller volume of lava, so the magma chamber refills faster. HVO are explicit that this could change, but for now the pattern is shorter intervals, smaller episodes.
🇺🇸 Kīlauea Advisory · Yellow
Episode 47 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at 3:27 PM HST on Wednesday 14 May and has concluded as of this report being published. Precursory activity gave HVO plenty of notice: south vent overflows began at 2:57 AM HST on 14 May, with six overflow events recorded by 7:00 AM each lasting 20–30 minutes. Strong glow, flames, and occasional spatter bursts at the north vent were also observed through the morning. HVO issued a Volcano Activity Notice narrowing the forecast window to "sometime today, 14 May" at 6:08 AM HST, and another notice confirming fountaining had begun at 5:18 PM HST. The plume from the eruption reached 20,000 feet above sea level per the National Weather Service. Low-altitude winds were blowing from the northeast, directing most volcanic gas and material to the southwest.
This is the 47th episode of the current eruption series which began on 23 December 2024. HVO's Volcano Watch article published this week noted that the frequency of fountaining events has increased to nearly one per week — reminiscent of the early days of the eruption. The reason for the quicker repeats is that the volume of lava erupted has been much lower during the past three episodes, meaning the magma storage system recovers what was erupted more quickly. HVO noted this pattern could change, and that there are no clear signs yet of changes in the summit eruption overall. The UWD tiltmeter reinflated to more than 1 microradian above the level it reached just prior to Episode 46 before Episode 47 began — consistent with the tilt-based forecasting methodology HVO has been using throughout the eruption series.
🇵🇭 Mayon Alert 3 · 130+ days
Mayon's effusive eruption has now been running for more than 130 consecutive days — and this week delivered a meaningful change in one of the headline figures we have been reporting week by week. As of 9 May, lava flow lengths in the Mi-isi Gully had reached 1.6 km — up from the 1.3 km that had been the reported figure since the eruption began in January. The Basud Gully flow remains at 3.8 km and the Bonga Gully flow at 3.2 km, unchanged. This is the first advance recorded in the Mi-isi drainage since the eruption began. Lava effusion continued from the summit crater, with minor episodic Strombolian activity also observed.
The 2 May PDC event — described in last week's roundup — remains the most significant event of the 2026 eruption. PHIVOLCS confirmed that Quick Response Teams were deployed to quantify pyroclastic deposits in the Mi-isi gully, and that lahar monitoring is ongoing. Alert Level 3 remains in effect, indicating high magmatic unrest and the potential for hazardous eruptions, with the six-kilometre Permanent Danger Zone enforced. The advance of the Mi-isi flow is worth noting — the gully that saw the 2 May PDC event is the same one where lava is now pushing further downslope.
🇮🇩 Dukono Alert 3 · Aftermath
A week on from the 8 May eruption that killed three hikers and left 20 missing, Dukono remains at Alert Level 3. Body recovery operations are ongoing — the two survivors who voluntarily remained on the mountain to assist search teams are continuing to help locate the bodies of those killed. The volcano remains closed. PVMBG has not downgraded the alert level, which reflects both the ongoing eruption status and the continued risk of further explosive activity and mudflows in the event of rainfall. We published a full dedicated report on the 8 May eruption here, which we will update as the situation develops.
Dukono remains one of Indonesia's most persistently active volcanoes and is likely to continue elevated activity. The 10 km ash column on 8 May was far beyond typical background activity — PVMBG and the wider volcanology community will be assessing what, if anything, has changed in the system. For now: Alert Level 3, area closed, no access.
🇷🇪 Piton de la Fournaise Alert 2-2 · Resting
Piton de la Fournaise remains in its inter-eruptive phase following the end of its fourth 2026 eruption on 12 April. OVPF bulletins through to 14 May report that far-field GNSS stations continue to record inflation — confirming a deep source is still pressurised — while summit GNSS stations show no particular signals. Geochemically, SO₂ and H₂S concentrations at the summit remain at background levels, and CO₂ ground flux at the PCRN monitoring station has been on a decreasing trend since the end of the February–April eruption. This is a system in a genuine resting phase, but with a pressurised deep source. Four eruptions in 2026 in under four months is the context — the question is when, not whether.
📡 What to watch next week
Kīlauea Episode 48 — with episodes now running nearly weekly and the interval between 46 and 47 being around nine days, Episode 48 could arrive as soon as next weekend. Watch for south vent overflows as the precursory signal; HVO will issue a forecast window once tilt data allows. Mayon's Mi-isi flow advance is worth tracking — the 2 May PDC event came from lava collapse in the same gully that has now extended to 1.6 km. Any further advance or escalation in PDC activity from Mi-isi should be watched carefully.
Dukono — body recovery operations are ongoing. PVMBG will be assessing the system following the 8 May major event. Any change in alert level or further eruptive activity warrants immediate attention. Piton de la Fournaise — deep inflation persists, geochemistry is quiet. Not imminent, but not done either.